If you want to succeed in investment, perhaps the last thing you should do is to learn economics in college:
"According to one former Harvard official, its endowment fund has done so well because it has avoided taking advice from the economics faculty."
-The Economist, 20 Jan 07
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Friday, January 19, 2007
design
So it turns out that I'm gonna have to do some design work now, since somebody at the office is leaving. I haven't done design in years, and I totally know nuts about BS 8110 or CP 65 so I'm so screwed!
I used to be quite good at design but thats a very long long time ago and it was the ACI/AISC code which is not only not applicable here but in the wrong units. If I had taken a different path I'd have been a PE now and earning lots of money. Unfortunately I have no PE and probably will never get one and I so am not earning lots of money.....
I find it funny sometimes how every country seems to have their own building code. At least commonwealth countries in general try to follow something universal like the British Standard. Unfortunately, most countries (we know who) still try to tweak it and come up with their own version (code of practice) to confuse the world and to ensure that they will have superiority doing design in their own code in their own country. If you have a PE based on design experience in a code of practice particular to one tiny little country I don't think your skills are very marketable globally. So much for the state of engineering.....
The next big thing (if it hasn't already come) in engineering is not operations research, as a lot of people think, but computational mechanics. Already in Western Europe and the United States engineers are doing the impossible with computational mechanics, replacing physical testing and all. Operations research is perhaps best left to business types rather than engineers, like what was done at Dell. Unfortunately some people are still using paper charts for design that are more than 20 years old. By the time the technological revolution hits these people they are more likely to be replaced than to step up to the challenge!
I used to be quite good at design but thats a very long long time ago and it was the ACI/AISC code which is not only not applicable here but in the wrong units. If I had taken a different path I'd have been a PE now and earning lots of money. Unfortunately I have no PE and probably will never get one and I so am not earning lots of money.....
I find it funny sometimes how every country seems to have their own building code. At least commonwealth countries in general try to follow something universal like the British Standard. Unfortunately, most countries (we know who) still try to tweak it and come up with their own version (code of practice) to confuse the world and to ensure that they will have superiority doing design in their own code in their own country. If you have a PE based on design experience in a code of practice particular to one tiny little country I don't think your skills are very marketable globally. So much for the state of engineering.....
The next big thing (if it hasn't already come) in engineering is not operations research, as a lot of people think, but computational mechanics. Already in Western Europe and the United States engineers are doing the impossible with computational mechanics, replacing physical testing and all. Operations research is perhaps best left to business types rather than engineers, like what was done at Dell. Unfortunately some people are still using paper charts for design that are more than 20 years old. By the time the technological revolution hits these people they are more likely to be replaced than to step up to the challenge!
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Peter's Principles
Never invest in any idea you can't draw with a crayon.
You can't see the future through a rearview mirror.
There's no point paying Yo-Yo Ma to play a radio.
As long as you are picking a fund, you might as well pick a good one.
The extravagance of any corporate office is directly proportional to management's reluctance to reward the shareholders.
When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yield of the S&P500 by 6 percent or more, sell your stocks and buy bonds.
The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.
A sure cure for taking a stock for granted is a big drop in the price.
Never bet on a comeback while they're playing "Taps."
If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock.
In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.
All else being equal, invest in the company with the fewest color photographs in the annual report.
When even the analysts are bored, it's time to start buying.
Corporations, like people, change their names for one of two reasons: either they've gotten married, or they've been involved in some fiasco that they hope the public will forget.
Whatever the queen is selling, buy it.
You can't see the future through a rearview mirror.
There's no point paying Yo-Yo Ma to play a radio.
As long as you are picking a fund, you might as well pick a good one.
The extravagance of any corporate office is directly proportional to management's reluctance to reward the shareholders.
When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yield of the S&P500 by 6 percent or more, sell your stocks and buy bonds.
The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.
A sure cure for taking a stock for granted is a big drop in the price.
Never bet on a comeback while they're playing "Taps."
If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock.
In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination.
All else being equal, invest in the company with the fewest color photographs in the annual report.
When even the analysts are bored, it's time to start buying.
Corporations, like people, change their names for one of two reasons: either they've gotten married, or they've been involved in some fiasco that they hope the public will forget.
Whatever the queen is selling, buy it.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
The move
The last 3 days were spent shifting office, which was an absolute nightmare! Finally Sunday is the only day of the week I can rest at home. I think I might even have caught a cold after all that moving in the incessant rain..... The next few days will probably be spent unpacking and setting up the new place, though the boss says we will start working on monday (yeah right!).
What's good about the new place is that there's great food all around, hawker centers, fast food, coffee shops, bakeries, etc. So much better than the crap we eat everyday in Tower A! Also a big supermarket, photocopy shops, hair salons etc. Did you know that the coffee shop downstairs has one of the cheapest beers in town? 5 bucks for a bottle of tiger. Normally getting a bottle would be between $5.60 and $6. There's also a direct bus to my house which means saving lots of $$ on transportation :P !
What's not hot about the new set up? Well we'll be far away from all the admin staff so it will be a serious pain trying to get any admin support. Plus my desk has a direct line-of-sight to my boss given the new low partitions (ouch!) but perhaps we can take care of that by placing some furniture in the way ;)
What's good about the new place is that there's great food all around, hawker centers, fast food, coffee shops, bakeries, etc. So much better than the crap we eat everyday in Tower A! Also a big supermarket, photocopy shops, hair salons etc. Did you know that the coffee shop downstairs has one of the cheapest beers in town? 5 bucks for a bottle of tiger. Normally getting a bottle would be between $5.60 and $6. There's also a direct bus to my house which means saving lots of $$ on transportation :P !
What's not hot about the new set up? Well we'll be far away from all the admin staff so it will be a serious pain trying to get any admin support. Plus my desk has a direct line-of-sight to my boss given the new low partitions (ouch!) but perhaps we can take care of that by placing some furniture in the way ;)
Sunday, January 07, 2007
Backwards
I skated 2 full sessions today. Which basically means that I've been skating the whole day!
Anyhow, I learned 2 new tricks: Skating backwards WHILE looking backwards, and skating backwards in a circle. Cool right?
Basically observing other people and lots of trial and error, and lots of falling (ouch!).....
Anyhow, I learned 2 new tricks: Skating backwards WHILE looking backwards, and skating backwards in a circle. Cool right?
Basically observing other people and lots of trial and error, and lots of falling (ouch!).....
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
Stock Trading
Happy New Year everyone! I bought myself a new book to digest over the Christmas and New Year holidays. Unfortunately, I haven't got down to flipping the front page until the very last day, which is today. Here is an interesting excerpt:
There has been much controversy among market experts as to the differences between trading and investing. Investors have been characterized as stable, serious, financially well-off types who are focused on implementing the capitalist ideal by using their money to make money over the long term. By long term, I mean a period of more than six months. Indeed, in today's changing economic environment, the definition of long term is very different than it was prior to the late 1980s. In those days inverstors held stocks for a number of years in order to achieve slow and steady gains. There was nothing wrong with that strategy and there is still nothing wrong with it, if you have time and considerable patience.
For those who are less willing to wait from two to seven years for results, there are many short-term opportunities in today's markets. The short-term end of the market does not necessarily mean "day-trading" (i.e., trading within the time frame of the day and not keeping stocks overnight). These opportunities were created by increased stock market volatility that began in the 1990s. By "volatility", I mean relatively large price movements in stocks during the course of the trading day....
... From 2000 through early 2004, stocks became less volatile and with the decrease in volatility, day trading opportunities diminished. On the other hand, short-term trading opportunities continued to be plentiful. By short term I mean from two to about ten day's duration. As brokerage house commissions for online trading continued to decline, the cost of trading decreased, thereby making short-term as well as day trading more viable... While I believe that day-trading can be profitable, it is an arduous venture that is both time-consuming, labor-intensive, and often not worth the time or trouble unless you are totally dedicated and willing to trade a large number of shares each time.
There has been much controversy among market experts as to the differences between trading and investing. Investors have been characterized as stable, serious, financially well-off types who are focused on implementing the capitalist ideal by using their money to make money over the long term. By long term, I mean a period of more than six months. Indeed, in today's changing economic environment, the definition of long term is very different than it was prior to the late 1980s. In those days inverstors held stocks for a number of years in order to achieve slow and steady gains. There was nothing wrong with that strategy and there is still nothing wrong with it, if you have time and considerable patience.
For those who are less willing to wait from two to seven years for results, there are many short-term opportunities in today's markets. The short-term end of the market does not necessarily mean "day-trading" (i.e., trading within the time frame of the day and not keeping stocks overnight). These opportunities were created by increased stock market volatility that began in the 1990s. By "volatility", I mean relatively large price movements in stocks during the course of the trading day....
... From 2000 through early 2004, stocks became less volatile and with the decrease in volatility, day trading opportunities diminished. On the other hand, short-term trading opportunities continued to be plentiful. By short term I mean from two to about ten day's duration. As brokerage house commissions for online trading continued to decline, the cost of trading decreased, thereby making short-term as well as day trading more viable... While I believe that day-trading can be profitable, it is an arduous venture that is both time-consuming, labor-intensive, and often not worth the time or trouble unless you are totally dedicated and willing to trade a large number of shares each time.
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Resolutions for 2007
Okay, it's only December 26th (going on 27th) but since everyone is making their new year resolutions, I figure it's time for mine too before I totally forget about it. A new year, a new beginning, a better tomorrow....
In 2007 I resolve to:
1. Beat the STI Index
2. Run (at least) twice a week and skate once a week
3. Join a club/regular activity
4. Lose 5kg (I probably put on 5kg this Christmas/new year heheh)
5. Present a paper at an international conference
6. Pick up a new hobby
7. Travel somewhere I've never been before
8. Improve my golf (that's probably the toughest one)
9. Blog at least once a week
10. Win some money at poker!!!
In 2007 I resolve to:
1. Beat the STI Index
2. Run (at least) twice a week and skate once a week
3. Join a club/regular activity
4. Lose 5kg (I probably put on 5kg this Christmas/new year heheh)
5. Present a paper at an international conference
6. Pick up a new hobby
7. Travel somewhere I've never been before
8. Improve my golf (that's probably the toughest one)
9. Blog at least once a week
10. Win some money at poker!!!
Monday, December 25, 2006
Happiness and economics
If you are looking for a good read this Christmas, check out the article "Happiness and economics" on page 33 of this weeks Economist double-issue. Basically its a rather Freakonomics-like breakdown of what drives people in today's economy and the endless chase of happiness.
Perhaps it will provide some insight and soul searching for the past year and give some guidance for the year(s) ahead. We all want to be happy don't we? =)
I was tempted to paste the entire article here but I guess I will be sued for copyright infringement, so here's an excerpt:
To clamber up the pecking order, some people slave away nights and weekends at the office. They gain in rank at the expense of their free time. But in making that sacrifice they also hurt anyone else who shares their aspirations: they too must give up their weekends to keep up. Mr Frank reckons that many people would like to work less, if only others slackened off also. But such bargains cannot be struck unilaterally. On the contrary, people compete in costly “arms races”, knowing that if they do not work harder, they will lose their standing to someone who does.
These races are motivated by more than just prestige. As Fred Hirsch argued in his 1977 book, “The Social Limits to Growth”, many good things in life are “positional”. You can enjoy them only if others don't. Sometimes, a quick car, fine suit or attractive house is not enough. One must have the fastest car, finest suit or priciest house.
Think of the scramble for schools, Mr Frank says. Only 10% of kids can go to the top 10% of schools. In many countries, wherever the schools are good, the houses will be expensive. Thus parents who want the best education for their child must overwork to afford a house in a good school district. In doing so, however, they raise the bar for everyone else.
Is mutual disarmament possible? Not without government help, Mr Frank and Lord Layard argue. The exchequer should tax earned income heavily enough to deter one-upmanship, they say.
Despite appearances, this is not a naked example of punitive redistribution—the fiscal politics of envy. Mr Frank and Lord Layard do not want to level the social order. Their aim is much more conservative than that. Their taxes would leave the pecking order intact and envy undiminished. But people would be deterred from acting on the green-eyed monster. The problem these economists want to tackle is not inequality per se. It is that people don't know their place and scramble vainly to improve it. Carlyle, who thought man should content himself with being the worthy follower of worthy superiors, would no doubt have approved.
I especially like the part about progressive tax. Given the huge influx of super wealthy into Singapore to "escape" higher taxes in their home countries, no wonder people are complaining about a new "elite" class here that are totally out of touch with the rest of society.
Perhaps it will provide some insight and soul searching for the past year and give some guidance for the year(s) ahead. We all want to be happy don't we? =)
I was tempted to paste the entire article here but I guess I will be sued for copyright infringement, so here's an excerpt:
To clamber up the pecking order, some people slave away nights and weekends at the office. They gain in rank at the expense of their free time. But in making that sacrifice they also hurt anyone else who shares their aspirations: they too must give up their weekends to keep up. Mr Frank reckons that many people would like to work less, if only others slackened off also. But such bargains cannot be struck unilaterally. On the contrary, people compete in costly “arms races”, knowing that if they do not work harder, they will lose their standing to someone who does.
These races are motivated by more than just prestige. As Fred Hirsch argued in his 1977 book, “The Social Limits to Growth”, many good things in life are “positional”. You can enjoy them only if others don't. Sometimes, a quick car, fine suit or attractive house is not enough. One must have the fastest car, finest suit or priciest house.
Think of the scramble for schools, Mr Frank says. Only 10% of kids can go to the top 10% of schools. In many countries, wherever the schools are good, the houses will be expensive. Thus parents who want the best education for their child must overwork to afford a house in a good school district. In doing so, however, they raise the bar for everyone else.
Is mutual disarmament possible? Not without government help, Mr Frank and Lord Layard argue. The exchequer should tax earned income heavily enough to deter one-upmanship, they say.
Despite appearances, this is not a naked example of punitive redistribution—the fiscal politics of envy. Mr Frank and Lord Layard do not want to level the social order. Their aim is much more conservative than that. Their taxes would leave the pecking order intact and envy undiminished. But people would be deterred from acting on the green-eyed monster. The problem these economists want to tackle is not inequality per se. It is that people don't know their place and scramble vainly to improve it. Carlyle, who thought man should content himself with being the worthy follower of worthy superiors, would no doubt have approved.
I especially like the part about progressive tax. Given the huge influx of super wealthy into Singapore to "escape" higher taxes in their home countries, no wonder people are complaining about a new "elite" class here that are totally out of touch with the rest of society.
Sunday, December 24, 2006
Saturday, December 23, 2006
Super Sonic
It appeared like a beautiful day for skating this morning. As I was coming back from the Fort Road area one tall ang moh guy waved and shouted out to me "Berkeley!" and I was a little freaked out! Then I realised I was wearing my "all Cal" skating outfit today which probably explains the reaction. Didn't recognise him as one of the Cal alumni though his built looked a little like DH. I learned a new trick while observing lessons at the rink: sudden spin-stop. Basically its a variation of the standard spin-stop (or y-stop, eagle-turn to some people) except that you pivot on your left toe rather than the entire left foot. So basically your left skate flips onto an eagle stance real fast, and with a quick flip of your right foot you are now rolling on backwards voila! The key is catching your balance when you flip your right skate that quickly, or else you will end up on your butt (trust me on that one)! After skating a while though, the weather started turning on me and I got to tell you that your heart just sinks when you see those bearings soaking in all that rainwater......
All that rainfall called for some emergency skate maintenance to make sure those ILQ-9 bearings don't get corroded. And yes, they do get corroded even though they are "stainless steel"! So basically I had to take everything apart and dry out the bearings with a hairdryer. Sounds easy? Well, I got stuck on the first step, luckily I had some handy tools. Apparently all that grime and water made the bearings kinda stuck in the wheels. The K2 skate tool was of no use half the time. That's where the "Sonic Pro Tool" comes in handy! Pops out all the bearings all of the time with minimal effort! And I thought I had wasted good money on that tool.....
In the process of drying and cleaning out all those bearings I found that some of them didn't spin very well. I suppose some dirt got into them, there were no signs of corrosion though. With all that grease inside the bearings its hard to tell what dirt is in there, so I had to find some way to clean them out. Tried using napkins and all, but those were completely of no use, its just too difficult to get anything out from those bearings! Now that's where the "Sonic Turbo Bearing Wash" comes in handy. Basically I threw all the bearings in there, and voila, after 5 minutes, everything was perfectly clean and shiny!!! Even all the grease was removed, it was a miracle!!!! I didn't have to do anything but throw them into the fluid and shake a little!
So now that the dirty bearings are all cleaned and dried out, time to test the spin. Somehow the bearings seem to have a little spin resistance after being completely cleaned out though, as in you can hear some metal grinding or something. Not perfect, but I guess I could use it like that. That's when I found out that just a few drops of "Sonic Super Oil" makes a hella difference! Few drops of that magic lube and the bearings spin effortlessly! I think much less lube was required than the original ton of grease that was in there when I bought those skates.....
The whole process took me almost 2 hours. Probably worth the effort but I'd pay a skate shop 5 bucks if they could do it all for me haha! Somehow though I doubt I could trust someone else to put in as much effort to achieve the same standard.....
All that rainfall called for some emergency skate maintenance to make sure those ILQ-9 bearings don't get corroded. And yes, they do get corroded even though they are "stainless steel"! So basically I had to take everything apart and dry out the bearings with a hairdryer. Sounds easy? Well, I got stuck on the first step, luckily I had some handy tools. Apparently all that grime and water made the bearings kinda stuck in the wheels. The K2 skate tool was of no use half the time. That's where the "Sonic Pro Tool" comes in handy! Pops out all the bearings all of the time with minimal effort! And I thought I had wasted good money on that tool.....
In the process of drying and cleaning out all those bearings I found that some of them didn't spin very well. I suppose some dirt got into them, there were no signs of corrosion though. With all that grease inside the bearings its hard to tell what dirt is in there, so I had to find some way to clean them out. Tried using napkins and all, but those were completely of no use, its just too difficult to get anything out from those bearings! Now that's where the "Sonic Turbo Bearing Wash" comes in handy. Basically I threw all the bearings in there, and voila, after 5 minutes, everything was perfectly clean and shiny!!! Even all the grease was removed, it was a miracle!!!! I didn't have to do anything but throw them into the fluid and shake a little!
So now that the dirty bearings are all cleaned and dried out, time to test the spin. Somehow the bearings seem to have a little spin resistance after being completely cleaned out though, as in you can hear some metal grinding or something. Not perfect, but I guess I could use it like that. That's when I found out that just a few drops of "Sonic Super Oil" makes a hella difference! Few drops of that magic lube and the bearings spin effortlessly! I think much less lube was required than the original ton of grease that was in there when I bought those skates.....
The whole process took me almost 2 hours. Probably worth the effort but I'd pay a skate shop 5 bucks if they could do it all for me haha! Somehow though I doubt I could trust someone else to put in as much effort to achieve the same standard.....
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Kurt Wenner
Kurt Wenner is probably one of the most amazing artists around! He does chalk drawings on the streets that look so real that you'd think there's stuff rising out of the ground or something! And the best part is that he's right here in Singapore now, and that's him drawing! I wonder how many people know he's in town creating a masterpiece.....Monday, December 11, 2006
California
We've be on the run
Driving in the sun
Looking out for number one
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
Well, hustlers grab your guns
The shadow weighs a ton
Driving down the 101
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
California
Here we come!
On the stereo
Listen as we go
Nothing's gonna stop me now
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
Peddle to the floor
Thinking of you more
Gotta get us to the show
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
California
Here we come!
Driving in the sun
Looking out for number one
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
Well, hustlers grab your guns
The shadow weighs a ton
Driving down the 101
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
California
Here we come!
On the stereo
Listen as we go
Nothing's gonna stop me now
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
Peddle to the floor
Thinking of you more
Gotta get us to the show
California, here we come
Right back where we started from
California
Here we come!
Saturday, December 09, 2006
Surprising Report on the Ethical Food Movement
I just read this article about the ethical-food movement (i.e. organic, fairtrade and local).
The aims of much of the ethical-food movement -- to protect the environment, to encourage development and to redress the distortions in global trade -- are admirable. The problems lie in the means, not the ends. No amount of Fairtrade coffee will eliminate world poverty, and all the organic asparagus in the world will not save the planet. Some of the stuff sold under an ethical label may even leave the world in a worse state and its poor farmers poorer than they otherwise would be.
-The Economist Dec 9, 2006
The aims of much of the ethical-food movement -- to protect the environment, to encourage development and to redress the distortions in global trade -- are admirable. The problems lie in the means, not the ends. No amount of Fairtrade coffee will eliminate world poverty, and all the organic asparagus in the world will not save the planet. Some of the stuff sold under an ethical label may even leave the world in a worse state and its poor farmers poorer than they otherwise would be.
-The Economist Dec 9, 2006
Friday, December 08, 2006
His Sheep Am I
In God's green pastures feeding
by His cool waters lie
Soft in the evening walk my Lord and I;
All the sheep of His pasture
Fare so wondrously fine.
His sheep am I
Water's cool... in the valley
pasture's green... on the mountain
In the evening walk my Lord and I;
Dark the night... in the valley
Rough the way... on the mountain
Step by step
Walk my Lord and I
by His cool waters lie
Soft in the evening walk my Lord and I;
All the sheep of His pasture
Fare so wondrously fine.
His sheep am I
Water's cool... in the valley
pasture's green... on the mountain
In the evening walk my Lord and I;
Dark the night... in the valley
Rough the way... on the mountain
Step by step
Walk my Lord and I
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
News Channels
I just read this in the Economist regarding English-speaking news channels:
If there is heavy-handed government influence, viewers will notice, and switch off. "Russia Today", an English-language news channel from the Russian government, has had little impact since its launch last December; neither has Channel NewsAsia, started in 1999 by a firm owned by Singapore's government to challenge Western dominance of the airwaves.
Ouch! I think Channel NewsAsia has a pretty good well-updated website, but otherwise they appear not to be as popular in the region as they claim to be....
If there is heavy-handed government influence, viewers will notice, and switch off. "Russia Today", an English-language news channel from the Russian government, has had little impact since its launch last December; neither has Channel NewsAsia, started in 1999 by a firm owned by Singapore's government to challenge Western dominance of the airwaves.
Ouch! I think Channel NewsAsia has a pretty good well-updated website, but otherwise they appear not to be as popular in the region as they claim to be....
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